I’ve been saying for a while if AGI is possible it’s going to take another innovation and the transformer / LLM paradigm will plateau, and innovations are hard to time. I used to get downvoted for saying that years ago and now more people are realizing it. LLMs are awesome but there is a limit, most of the interesting things in the next years will be bolting more functionality and agent stuff, introspection like Anthropic is working on and smaller, less compute hungry specialized models. There’s still a lot to explore in this paradigm, but we’re getting diminishing returns on newer models, especially when you factor in cost
I bet that it will only happen when the ability to process and concrete new information into its training model without retraining the entire model is standard, AND when multiple AIs with slightly different datasets are set to work together to create a consensus response approach.
It's probably never going to work with a single process without consuming the resources of the entire planet to run that process on.
