BLS tracks both numbers, and the private still diverges quite a bit. We saw this again in July. ADP number was -33k private sector jobs, BLS showed growth of 74K for private sector, so massive 100k delta in just the private sector number.
That is quite the delta, but why is it assumed BLS is the more correct one?
From the BLS site on their methodology[0]:
> The Current Employment Statistics (CES) program, also known as the payroll survey or the establishment survey, is a monthly survey of approximately 121,000 businesses and government agencies representing approximately 631,000 worksites throughout the United States.
> All new samples are solicited by computer-assisted telephone interview (CATI), and data are collected for the first 5 months via this mode. After the initiation period, many sample units are transferred to one of several less costly reporting methods that are self-initiated by the respondent.
How is a survey from 121k businesses better than the actual payroll data from a company handling 460k companies[1]?
Isn’t the larger sample generally considered better? Isn’t source data generally considered better than a phone survey of self-reporting?
Looking at the two methodologies, it sounds like BLS data is noise, not ADP.
