There has been a lot of chaos, and extremely poor treatment of employees throughout the federal government. For instance, firing people because they were in the first couple of years of their tenure and had fewer protections, but then lying to them and telling them it was because of their performance (without actually doing any performance reviews). Mass emails telling people to quit and find more productive jobs in the private sector. Firing, then re-hiring people when it turns out that their work was actually essential (this is a deliberate strategy from Elon and Vivek - they talked about it openly). Telling government workers that you want to put them "in trauma" (Vought). Arbitrarily cancelling important projects and re-directing people to do things like scrub websites of disfavored words.
If you have a small team of experts and you put a couple on administrative leave because you're trying to fire them, and a couple more retire or quit because they don't want to deal with the stress, and the remaining members of the team have to pick up the work, but they're also getting confusing and contradictory directions from their supervisors and are feeling threatened, you're basically going to have productivity crater.
I wasn't involved in this research - all I can do is explain how scientific research done at federal labs has been disrupted in general. (Plus some things that I didn't mention, like bans on scientists attending conferences or publishing or communicating externally).
If you have a small team of experts and you put a couple on administrative leave because you're trying to fire them, and a couple more retire or quit because they don't want to deal with the stress, and the remaining members of the team have to pick up the work, but they're also getting confusing and contradictory directions from their supervisors and are feeling threatened, you're basically going to have productivity crater.