You're right that the textbook definition of a technical recession is two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth. That part’s clear.
So technically, we can say “Q2 is over” on Tuesday, but we won’t be able to declare a recession (or not) until that data comes out. Unless you're inside the Fed or BEA models, we're all just speculating until then.
The advance estimate drops on July 22 from the BEA.
So technically, we can say “Q2 is over” on Tuesday, but we won’t be able to declare a recession (or not) until that data comes out. Unless you're inside the Fed or BEA models, we're all just speculating until then.
The advance estimate drops on July 22 from the BEA.
US is in a slight slowdown though