I said: >the tariffs will encourage the creation of more, better, jobs in the US through re-shoring
they said: >that isn't possible for any production other than a primitive one.
What I find bizarre in this discussion is the refusal to even acknowledge that there are other economic effects at play besides the first order effect of tariffs increasing the cost of imports. A second order effect is to make building things domestically relatively cheaper, all other things being equal, because those things won't be subject to the tariff. Will the net effect be positive or negative? Who knows. But people refusing to even acknowledge that there are effects that cut both ways tells me that they are dishonest or stupid and you probably can't have much of a conversation with them.
It's because those second-order effects are pretty much theoretical and they're just a distraction. Nobody actually believes that tariffs will increase production in the US because you would need to be very naive and stupid to believe that. And, well, you're not. So yes, people might call your bluff and unfortunately this means we all have to actually try when we're creating our arguments.
The reason for this is that we understand it would take on the order of decades to make that kind of domestic economic reform. And we have seen this administration cannot even hold decisions on the scale of weeks.
So yes, you're correct that this could, theoretically, increase domestic production. In the same way that if I run my hand into a wall there's a chance all the atoms miss each other and I phase right through.
The reason you don't hear much about positive knock-on effects is that their time frames stretch beyond anyone's planning horizon. The only immediate effects will be losses, and they'll be around for a while.
There's no existential threat compelling enough to shut down trade for the generation or two it would take to see real benefits, and those benefits could be realized within the same time frame through other means.
This turns conversation around positive effects into a thought experiment people might not find germane to a current discussion. The tariffs simply won't be in place long enough.
> A second order effect is to make building things domestically relatively cheaper, all other things being equal, because those things won't be subject to the tariff.
that is just opposite of reality. Several people explained that to you here, yet you state :
>But people refusing to even acknowledge that there are effects that cut both ways tells me that they are dishonest or stupid and you probably can't have much of a conversation with them.
People brought you a ton of arguments, yet you haven't addressed any of them, haven't produced any counter-example, and instead shouted that bizarre statement.
they said: >that isn't possible for any production other than a primitive one.
What I find bizarre in this discussion is the refusal to even acknowledge that there are other economic effects at play besides the first order effect of tariffs increasing the cost of imports. A second order effect is to make building things domestically relatively cheaper, all other things being equal, because those things won't be subject to the tariff. Will the net effect be positive or negative? Who knows. But people refusing to even acknowledge that there are effects that cut both ways tells me that they are dishonest or stupid and you probably can't have much of a conversation with them.