>Are you sure you're not painting this group with an overly-broad brush?
"Aren't these the people who"...
> And writing essays about the dangers of overconfidence? And measuring how often their predictions turn out wrong? And maintaining webpages titled "list of things I was wrong about"?
What's the value of that if it doesn't appear to be reasonably put to their own ideas. What you described otherwise is just another form of the exact kind of self-congratulation often (reasonably, IMO) lobbed at these "people"
"Aren't these the people who"...
> And writing essays about the dangers of overconfidence? And measuring how often their predictions turn out wrong? And maintaining webpages titled "list of things I was wrong about"?
What's the value of that if it doesn't appear to be reasonably put to their own ideas. What you described otherwise is just another form of the exact kind of self-congratulation often (reasonably, IMO) lobbed at these "people"