If google thinks your login is suspicious, it will look for 2FA. If you don't have a phone number tied to that account at that time, it will insist you add one.
This is not true. It will ask for a provided number if you've already provided one, but if you've never provided one, it'll ask for any number and treat that as the provided number for future reference.
> The claim that google will never insist you set up 2FA by providing them a phone number if their ML algorithms decide your log in is suspicious.
1) that's not what I said.
2) that flow you describe isn't asking you to set up SMS 2FA. It is asking you to verify an account with SMS. Likely because there is no other way for them to verify your account.
> Based on my own experiences with a little used google account and finding the messages of other users who have encountered the same error.
The number of people who've reported that error is super small. Even the link you provided is 10 months old. This must be related to an edge case of not having another 2FA set up.
> What is your basis for claiming that my position is untrue?
You said that it insists you add a number. I don't believe that is true. The example you provided does not show that is true.