Facebook is probably one of the single most hated companies in tech at the moment and it seems unlikely that is going to change anytime soon. I can't even remember the last time I heard someone mention that they actively enjoyed the product.
They are looking down the barrel at multiple major legal issues in the coming years and they are built entirely on a model that is fundamentally about selling personal data to advertisers without any other significant sources of income.
The main thing that is slowing down their decline (other than a lack of viable alternatives) is that they are basically able to hold peoples real life friendships / relationships hostage at the moment. Initiatives like https://datatransferproject.dev/ (of which FB is a member) have the potential to change that.
I could see a social network protocol emerging and that offered a number of different clients of which Facebook could be one.
Unfortunately, the closest thing we ever came to this was ActivityPub which well, let's say is a bit lacking both in adoption but also in it's vision but I think it's entirely possible that something like that could actually find some traction in the next few years.
I agree with most of this, but: Microsoft was hated 10x as much in the 90s and they're doing just fine today. MS's business model is much more stable, to be sure, but it's not like a $70 billion-per year company is easy to unseat.
Seems like the original FB product is an undead zombie trudging onwards from momentum and social networking late adopters.
But as far as I can tell, Instagram is still going extremely, extremely, strong amongst people in their 20s to 40s at least. I would go as far as to say Instagram is the product that "killed" Facebook.
I've heard the teens to early 20s crowd are abandoning Instagram for things like TikTok or Snap, but can't comment directly.
Snap died when Instagram stories became a thing. TikTok is pretty huge, but depending on what the next administration does to it, that should dictate its future.
1 Facebook is not a technology company. Facebook is a media (advertising) company.
2 Facebook, like most social media, is primarily dependent upon a business model formulated between 1998-2003. The business model is convince users to volunteer content to a central server, limit liability, and serve advertisements.
If you want to compete against Facebook and beat them at their own game you have to do a couple of things:
1 Take their market share
2 Make money
You will not win that game with a superior technology. You will win that game with a new and more durable business model, but sometimes new business models require new technology. Either way you have to be incredibly innovative and persistent, because most people absolutely hate original ideas.
I don't think a single competitor will beat Facebook.
Facebook isn't any single thing, some people use it for only Messenger, some for family photo Sharing, some for private status updates, and others as general news feed or public status. Then you have the other company customer chat/landing pages and marketplace.
If Facebook ever goes away it will be death by a thousand cuts, rather than some 800 lbs gorilla storming through and eating Facebook's lunch. It is too large.
I believe someone already stated the obvious: no one competitor will beat FB. Here are some of my thoughts on this:
1. They own ALL of Friendster's patents. they are all encompassing regarding social networking. No way any little guy can defend themselves.
2. someone said another obvious thing: ppl use different aspects of FB and not all.
3. after mons/yrs of teaching your grandma to use FB, no way anyone will move away and reteach.
4. FB offers no complete like Goog's Take Out scenario to easily reimport into another social network.
5. too many catfish. I suspect only 25% are real people. rest are entities, multi-accts.
6. too many simple thinking ppl are entrenched and won't change. comfort zone barrier too high to break.
7. governments worldwide now use them to control their people where in some coountries, every individual getting a cellphone must have a FB acct.
8. some countries like India use FB as their "internet." They don't know www exists.
9. FB can only be brought down by itself and they are already doing a fine job of it. There is a cycle for companies like this and although they now have a very long tail, there is an end to that tail. Next generation will have to make that change over so at a minimum, it will take a generation to make that fall.
10. FB are already losing the next gen, so opportunities abound except for the patent fights that will happen.
Bottomline is FB a road most will need to travel on for now, but I suspect like hwys, toll roads can lead a path out for some while the rifrafts will stay on the sinking boat.
yeah, understood and yes, generalizing but not doing indepth analysis here. I also hypothesize that depending on the caste you're in, FB may not be even in your radar. As most of the world sees FB has not only a window to the world but more importantly direct connection to people in the United States as in India a good percentage have never been on an airplane nor will ever leave the country. Furthermore, they mostly marvel at the standard of living they think everyone here lives like. Again depending on the caste, they literally sees all of the US living large like we're all Kim Kard...
Maybe not a tech competitor but gradually when people start to realise the privacy violations and wake up from the bubble, new generations etc will break FB hegemony.
Isn't Instagram basically similar now to the original FB product during its best years?
My social circle (consisting mostly of people in their upper 20s to early 40s) has largely abandoned FB in favor of Instagram. My understanding is the younger age brackets are also falling off Instagram in favor of things like Snap and TikTok? (correct me if wrong).
Seems like the major users of the original FB product are now older and/or less tech-saavy people who were late to catch the social networking boat? Again, correct me if I'm wrong.
A social network grows old with its user base.Here in India,new users don't signup to FB but Instagram.New users wanna be where their peers are.Younger users don't wanna be where "old" people are (Except for WhatsApp ).
"Facebook.com" will surely die in India.But Instagram and WhatsApp won't die.FB as a company won't die.Whenever a new social network which can beat FB (by attracting younger generation) comes up,Zuck buys it.So as long as acquisitions are done,FB(company) won't die.
Facebook is big enough that they can just buy any social media platform that starts to cut into their revenue. I don't think they'll be "beaten" for a few decades.
I think FB brought a vision of what is possible: ubiquitous, universal, interacting personal profiles and self-publishing. That concept is never going away.
My hope is that this concept will evolve into a more of an interoperating protocol of self-hosted entities, like RSS or IRC
I don't think another closed-garden-we-control-your-data website is going to replace Facebook, ever.
Facebook will not be beaten. Most likely niche sites will come after it from every angle and it won't be able to beat all of them and it'll eventually be hollowed out - billions of users signed up still, but MAUs will go down significantly.
If you’re talking about a social media site that makes money through ads, Google might try again with Hangouts9.0. Microsoft might rollout a competitor too. Or they could partner up with China’s Wechat to make it palatable for western users.
Facebook is probably one of the single most hated companies in tech at the moment and it seems unlikely that is going to change anytime soon. I can't even remember the last time I heard someone mention that they actively enjoyed the product.
They are looking down the barrel at multiple major legal issues in the coming years and they are built entirely on a model that is fundamentally about selling personal data to advertisers without any other significant sources of income.
The main thing that is slowing down their decline (other than a lack of viable alternatives) is that they are basically able to hold peoples real life friendships / relationships hostage at the moment. Initiatives like https://datatransferproject.dev/ (of which FB is a member) have the potential to change that.
I could see a social network protocol emerging and that offered a number of different clients of which Facebook could be one.
Unfortunately, the closest thing we ever came to this was ActivityPub which well, let's say is a bit lacking both in adoption but also in it's vision but I think it's entirely possible that something like that could actually find some traction in the next few years.