Please understand that his companies succeeding in some things doesn’t make the things that are exaggerated, overpromised, or just plain naked hype with no backing somehow practical. It’s an interesting effect of our age that for some figures to some people if any criticism is considered unwarranted then all criticism must be disregarded.
It reminds me of growing up in the evangelical church and all the pastors who’d still keep their followers even after they show up in new cars or fly first class, taking the tithes from old ladies on their pension.
I find HN and the tech circles to be one of the main community pillars holding up X. None of my social friends use it anymore, but links absolutely abound here, and it seems like the standard line is to pretend Elon, Grok, all the one button revenge and child porn etc don’t exist. I truly can’t fathom the amount of not thinking about it it would take to keep using the platform.
I have a blocker set up in my browser to prevent accidental clicks and sending any traffic to them when I'm not careful to check a given HN link to a posting. I've never had an account there (nor any of the popular social media networks) but I don't want to send even my few clicks their way.
No it isn't, the sensible people you followed 5 years ago left and stopped posting. The "Your followers" feed is now just the terminally addicted and the angry demagogues.
We don’t even have a habitable structure in space when the ISS falls, there is no world in which space datacenters are a thing in the next 10, I’d argue even 30 years. People really need to ground themselves in reality.
Edit: okay Tiangong - but that is not a data center.
We have 15,000 satellites in orbit that are almost literally the exact same premise currently being proposed - a computer with solar panels attached. We've being doing exactly this for decades.
> We don’t even have a habitable structure in space
Silicon is way more forgiving than biology. This isn’t an argument for this proposal. But there is no technical connection between humans in space and data centers other than launch-cost synergies.
Okay, but a human being represents what, 200 W of power? The ISS has a crew of 3, so that's less than a beefy single user AI workstation at full tilt. If the question is whether it's practical to put 1-2 kW worth of computing power in orbit, the answer is obviously yes, but somehow I don't think that's what's meant by "datacenter in space".
I don't know, 10 years seems reasonable for development. There's not that much new technology that needs to be developed. Cooling and communications would just require minor changes to existing designs. Other systems may be able to be lifted wholesale with minimal integration. I think if there were obstacles to building data centers on the ground then we might see them in orbit within the next ten years.
The same things you are saying about data centers in space was said by similar people 10-15 years ago when Elon musk said SpaceX would have a man on Mars in 10-15 years.
We have had the tech to do it since the 90's, we just needed to invest into it.
Same thing with Elon Musks hyperloop, aka the atmospheric train (or vactrain) which has been an idea since 1799! And how far has Elon Musks boring company come to building even a test loop?
Yeah, in theory you could build a data center in space. But unless you have a background in the limitations of space engineering/design brings, you don't truly understand what you are saying. A single AI data center server rack takes up the same energy load of 0.3 to 1 international space station. So by saying Elon musk can reasonable achieve this, is wild to anyone who has done any engineering work with space based tech. Every solar panel generates heat, the racks generate heat, the data communication system generates, heat... Every kW of power generated and every kW of power consumes needs a radiator. And it's not like water cooling, you are trying to radiate heat off into a vacuum. That is a technical challenge and size, the amount of tons to orbit needed to do this... Let alone outside of low earth... Its a moonshot project for sure. And like I said above, Elon musk hasnt really followed through with any of his moonshots.
> A single AI data center server rack takes up the same energy load of 0.3 to 1 international space station.
The ISS is powered by eight Solar Array Wings. Each wing weighs about 1,050kg. The station also has two radiator wings with three radiator orbital replacement units weighing about 1,100kg each. That's about 15,000 kg total so if the ISS can power three racks, that's 5,000kg of payload per rack not including the rack or any other support structure, shielding, heat distribution like heat pipes, and so on.
Assuming a Falcon Heavy with 60,000 kg payload, that's 12 racks launched for about $100 million. That's basically tripling or quadrupling (at least) the cost of each rack, assuming that's the only extra cost and there's zero maintenance.
Falcon Heavy does not cost 100M when launching 60 metric tons.
At 60 metric tons, you're expending all cores and only getting to LEO. These probably shouldn't be in LEO because they don't need to be and you probably don't want to be expending cores for these launches if you care about cost.
The real problem typically isn't weight, it's volume. Can you fit all of that in that fairing? It's onli 13m long by 5m diameter...
His time estimates are notoriously, um, aggressive. But I think that's part of how his companies are able to accomplish so much. And they do, even if you're upset they haven't put a human on Mars fast enough or built one of his side quests.
"We specialize in making the impossible merely late"
I note that their accomplishments tend to be in the past, prior to his Twitter addiction absorbing his attention. Tesla is a solid decade late on FSD, cutting models, and losing market share rapidly thanks to his influencer stunts. SpaceX has a solid government launch business, which is great, but they’ve been struggling with what’s been the next big thing for a while and none of that talk about Mars has made meaningful progress. Boring Company, Neurolink, etc. show no signs of profit anytime soon no matter how cool they sound.
Being ambitious is good to an extent but you need to be able to deliver to keep a company healthy. Right now, if you’re a sharp engineer you are looking at Tesla’s competition if you want to work on a project which doesn’t get cancelled (like it’s cars) and the stock price being hyped to the moon means that options aren’t going to be as competitive.
> Cooling and communications would just require minor changes to existing designs.
"Minor" cooling changes, for a radically different operating environment that does not even have a temperature, is a perfect insulator for conduction and convection, and will actively heat things up via incoming radiation? "Minor" ? Citation very much lacking.
Then you picked the wrong thread to insert yourself, it's literally about that.
Which is funny, there are multiple other replies to you, explaining at length that while your ideas are physically possible, they are completely impractical. And yet you think they still could be "minor".
People always make this claim about world hunger elimination with no sources. Keep in mind we make more than enough calories to feed everyone on the planet many times over, it's a problem of distribution, of getting the food to the right areas and continuing cultivation for self sufficiency.
Even the most magnanimous allocators cannot defeat the realities of boots on the ground in terms of distribution. It is a very difficult problem that cannot be solved top down, the only solution we've seen is growth of economic activity via capitalistic means, lifting millions, billions out of poverty as Asia has done in the last century for example.
I argue that if you have literal hundreds of billions of hard cash to burn for stupid things like AI datacenters, you could afford to make the lives of millions of starving people not suck instead, pretty easily so. But to do that, you'd have to try, and that would mean actually doing something good for humanity. Can't have that as a billionaire.
Who has hundreds of billions of hard cash for data centers? All of the AI spending has been in IOUs between Nvidia, OpenAI, Coreweave, etc. And even if you did have hard cash, how will you spend those billions? No one actually seems to have a sound plan, like I said. They just claim it can be done.
> SPIEGEL: Mr. Shikwati, the G8 summit at Gleneagles is about to beef up the development aid for Africa…
> [Kenyan Economist] Shikwati: … for God’s sake, please just stop.
> SPIEGEL: Stop? The industrialized nations of the West want to eliminate hunger and poverty.
> Shikwati: Such intentions have been damaging our continent for the past 40 years. If the industrial nations really want to help the Africans, they should finally terminate this awful aid. The countries that have collected the most development aid are also the ones that are in the worst shape. Despite the billions that have poured in to Africa, the continent remains poor.
It’s somewhat ironic that the way it has been framed here is as lacking in nuanced understanding as the style of aid which Shikwati argued against in the full interview. Unsurprising we should get a snippet cropped by a right wing libertarian think-tank in such a way that it boils down to simply “hurr aid bad”.
If you're hellbent on arguing with a cult, it will be much cheaper to go down to your local Church of Scientology and try to convince them that their e-meter doesn't work.
As if company performance actually affected stock price when it comes to anything Elon Musk touches.
For fuck's sake, TSLA has a P/E of a whopping *392*. There is zero justification for how overvalued that stock is. In a sane world, I should be able to short it and 10x my money, but people are buying into Musk's hype on FSD, Robotaxi, and whatever the hell robot they're making. Even if you expected them to be successes, they'd need to 20x the company's entire revenue to justify the current market cap.
Most 2FA can be done without a phone, and you can also use offline 2FA keys, not necessarily a text message.
You can also set up a phone number to accept texts from a laptop.
I can do whatever on my bank by just calling. It would be a bit weird to never be able to pitch in on meals with a $ transfer app, but I suppose when you run 2 tech companies you're probably paying most of the time, or you just take a note and transfer it later.
Runs 2 tech companies - the basic promise of the US is when you're rich you can do whatever the hell you want because you can pay people to handle stuff for you.
But also, one doesn't always need a phone - phones can die, signal is not gauranteed. What are your "must have" things that require one to have a smart phone to participate? Assume the poster has a home phone, laptop, and credit card.
Small companies that are 100% FOSS with no VC investment, where everyone has to pull their own weight. I do not have a personal assistant or anything like that and navigate the real world, travel, etc, very often alone.
The failure mode isn't as a tech company CEO. As you point out, if you're the CEO, you have the luxury of defining yourself unavailable as CEO whenever the hell you please. If the website is down out if business hours and you haven't made it someone else's problem that you're paying for it to stay up, it can just be down. No, the issue is as a father/mother/husband/wife/son/daughter to someone's you love dearly enough to consider them family, biological or otherwise.
It's rather dramatic, but the phone call/conversation I could never forgive myself for missing, is the last words of a loved one before they die, whether due to car crash or some other calamity (9/11). Or missing the opportunity to take the very next flight out to see them before they pass. You are free to treat your family, biological or chosen, as you see fit, I just know there are some phone calls I'd rather be woken up in the middle of the night for than miss. Reaching me via cellphone is more direct than trying to find whatever hotel I'm at since I'm on the road as CEO and talking to customers and vendors in person on the road as CEO, so calling my house phone doesn't help.
I gave up my phone as a lead security engineer at a vc funded company, and continued this when I quit to run my consulting firm full time as single proprietorship. Now we are a team of five running a consulting firm and a PaaS.
I spent most of my career as an infrastructure engineer so high redundancy, self healing you can trust, infrastructure-as-code, and follow-the-sun shifts, are healthier for everyone than expecting people to be available to work 24/7.
OTOH I could see my loved ones an extra 20h a week that I now use my phone. I am not sure they gonna say something vastly more interesting in this hypothetical scenario
Just as with an LLM, a detailed style and format guide helps an incredible amount both for the LLMs and juniors. If you have standards and they’re not written down, you either require everyone to go teach them to anyone new, or you don’t have standards.
Not very often, and most of the time it shouldn't be generating those but rather formatting code to test that. If you accept the non-determinism and use some of the more recent models, you'll find it can do 99% of it very fast, and with some guardrails and testing it can fairly reliably produce working solutions.
This does not match my experience, have been working with LLM since 2023. We presently use the latest models, I assure you. We can definitely afford it.
I am not saying LLM is worthless, but being able to check its outputs is still necessary at this stage, because as you said, it is non-deterministic.
We have had multiple customer impacting events from code juniors committed without understanding it. Please read my top level comment in this post for context.
I genuinely hope you do not encounter issues due to your confidence in LLM, but again, my experience does not match yours.
Edit: Would also add that LLM is not good at determining line numbers in a code file, another flaw that causes a lot of confusion.
I had a mid-level submit a PR implementing caching. I had to reject it multiple times. They were using Copilot and it couldn't implement it right and the developer couldn't understand it. Stuff like always retrieving from the API instead of the cache, or never storing the object in the cache after retrieving it.
They promoted that guy over me because he started closing more stories than me and faster after he started using Copilot. No wonder that team has 40% of its capacity used for rework and tech debt...
This matches my experience so hard that I wrote a novel below, have seen this pattern a lot, wanted to expand so people can understand the cycle/pattern.
Let's propose a generic scenario that shows why being able to engineer and read code is still important, and is a story we've all heard or seen a thousand times since the great LLMing of 2025.
"Just deliver the feature/product, we expect `ridiculousMetric` increase in productivity due to LLM" screeching from management and product/business.
A junior engineer will find someone who is willing to rubber stamp their LLM PRs so seniors or designated product experts don't even get a chance to check.
The LLM modifies existing tests to game everything to pass, the junior doesn't know any better, and so it quietly makes it to prod.
Because management is thinking in sprints, the way they see it, the ticket is closed, it's a win.
Then the broken production code, which junior will eventually be promoted for because the ticket is closed on paper, breaks prod, causes a huge outage costing `hugeNumber` dollars to the organization, and senior engineers have to clean it up. To boot, the spend metric is trash because of the LLM not knowing how to scale infra.
Since juniors can't meaningfully debug due to the toxic cycle, seniors spend too much time cleaning things up and it blocks their deliverables, and seniors look bad to leadership. Then they get managed out for not delivering, while the juniors lacking engineering experience due to the toxic cycle continue to rise through the ranks for delivering, even though their deliverables are trash.
I don't blame the juniors, they are under immense pressure and genuinely don't know better.
I blame short-sighted leadership.
I've heard this story from contacts at any of the big names you can think of.
It seems US tech industry is flying head-first into having giant teams of mid and senior level engineers who don't know how to debug or deliver efficiency within the next five years.
We're failing our juniors, and punishing seniors for having standards.
Meanwhile the core public use products and platforms are pretty poor. Tried shopping for clothes or anything on Amazon? 9/10ths of any page is ads, you can’t find anything you’re looking for.
It’s getting real close to “we’re customer obsessed, and our shareholders are our real customers”
It would be nice if we lived in a world where civil lawsuits were not the only way to gain any recompense from companies greed, as well.
The law protects companies but rarely binds them, and the law binds citizens but rarely protects them. This is the only recourse, in our land where wealth and power mean more than the rule of law.
It reminds me of growing up in the evangelical church and all the pastors who’d still keep their followers even after they show up in new cars or fly first class, taking the tithes from old ladies on their pension.
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