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> And when it is, then you've got code that requires design documents where the approach is described in great detail

And how do you write those design documents? First, you need to understand the landscape, and that means reading code, building experiments and trying out different variants, which then allows you to specify a design.

Our job isn't writing code, our job is to gain the understand required that allows us to write specifications and/or optimal code.

And while AI may be a better typewriter, it obscures the actually hard part of our job, the actual engineering, and the reason why others pay us to consult them.


It is not. To review code you need to have an understanding of the problem that can only be built by writing code. Not necessarily the final product, but at least prototypes and experiments that then inform the final product.

You don't need orbital velocity to blow satellites away. Just do a well-timed suborbital launch against the satellite's orbit, and the satellite will provide most of the kinetic energy.

For AI training, latency is one of the limiting factors, which needs to be kept in the nanoseconds. And a light-nanosecond is famously almost exactly 1 foot.

That's why Lumen/Starcloud's designs all assume it'll be a space station with all containers connected to one central networking spine.


> a thermos is specifically good at insulating because not only does it have a vacuum gap, it's also got two layers of metal (inner and outer) to absorb and reflect thermal radiation.

Not necessarily. There are many modern thermos "cups" that are just a regular cup, except with two layers of glass and a vacuum. Even the top is open all the time. (e.g. https://www.ikea.com/us/en/p/passerad-double-wall-glass-8054... )

It's still good enough to keep your coffee hot for an entire day.


There's a synergy effect here - Tesla sells you a solar roof and car bundle, the roof comes without a battery (making it cheaper) and the car now gets a free recharge whenever you're home (making it cheaper in the long term).

Of course that didn't work out with this specific acquisition, but overall it's at least a somewhat reasonable idea.


If they really have 40-60% gross margins, as training costs go down, the newly trained models could offer the same product at half the price.

Well thats why the labs are building these app level products like claude code/codex to lock their users in. Most of the money here is in business subscriptions I think, how much savings would be required for businesses to switch to products that arent better, just cheaper?

I think the real lock-in is in "CLAUDE.md" and similar rulesets, which are heavily AI specific.

Why would they be heavily "AI specific", when we're being told these things are approaching AGI and can just read arbitrary work documents?

Walmart? It's certainly more successful in physical markets

See Amazon

Different markets entirely—I can't walk into amazon, and I don't order online from Walmart.

You can order online from Walmart:

https://www.walmart.com/

Amazon can ship it to a location near you.


Again, different markets, because I'm not going to do either of those things—if I'm ordering online amazon has better selection, and if I want to walk somewhere to pick something up I'm not going to wait for shipping.

Are you saying that Amazon is a successful monopoly, or that Amazon is even with massive expenses still not a full monopoly?

Walmart competes with Amazon.

Because the latencies required for modern AI training are extremely restrictive. A light-nanosecond is famously a foot, and the critical distances have to be kept in that range.

And a single cluster today would already require more solar & cooling capacity than all starlink satellites combined.


> "Over there" is one of those countries where hundreds of people register their adress with the government at the house of an unsuspecting widow?

In e.g. Germany that requires a signed statement from the landlord, and the ability to receive mail at that address. If you can't receive mail at your own address, it'd be noticed and reported within at most 5 years. I actually believe it'd be the national health insurance that'd be the first to notice & report you missing, as having health insurance is mandatory (even if you continue paying them, they'd notice it once they can't send you a replacement card).


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