I don't get it. They're doing everything they can to create roadblocks to adoption. They don't accept prepaid cards, they restrict certain models behind extended verification processes and the list goes on. They got a lucky head-start and seem to have assumed they've built some impenetrable moat.

They have a large military base there and provide arms and training. They do the same for the rest of the Gulf countries except Iran.

Not the same as a security guarantee.

> One example: we get 10-12% of our LNG from Qatar.

Qatar is a pure American vassal state.

> it's just luck

No one will admit that because everyone likes to pretend that they "earned" it. Everything about you, your circumstances and surroundings is stochastic.

The quality angle was true 10 years ago, but that's no longer the case. Chinese cars are now superior in some areas and inferior in others (you can feel that some finishing is incomplete), but on average (and especially considering the price) they're better. The gap in the inferior areas is very small, and I wouldn't be surprised if they fully surpass European cars this year, given the new models they're releasing.

China's 2025 numbers are out: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_motor_veh...

They're up roughly 10% over last year and will likely hit 35% of global production. The big shift over the last decade (beyond their growing market share) is that their overall quality has caught up to (and in many cases surpassed) the traditional incumbents.

Barring a global war, I think they're unstoppable at this point.

I remember when Japan was supposed to take over the world in the '80s, to the point that "back to the future 2" had Americans speaking Japanese to their managers.

Toyota did become the dominant producer, but American and European car makers (and now Koreans and Chinese) are still around. I wouldn't bet on total domination from China anytime soon.

Well, China is not accepting/going through a Plaza Accord kind of an agreement. So history might not replay itself this time.

Yes I remember, too. The crucial difference is that Japan's population is one third of the US while China's is 4 times the US (and 3x the EU).

Basically Japan never had the numbers to "take over the world" while China has them even if natality is way down.

If China had the same clout relative to population as Japan, Germany, Korea, or the US it would dwarf everyone else, and that's why the US are in a panic about China.

And funny thing, all three countries car industries were started by the USA.

Google has de-indexed most of the web and stopped indexing anything that doesn’t get significant traction.

It is not a casino in the sense that in the casino you are better against the house. Polymarket is basically an arbiter with financial infrastructure.

Not all casino games are played against the house. The best analogy would be a game like poker, where the house takes a small percent of every pot (the rake). Other than that, money changes hands between players. The game has an element of randomness and luck but there is also a large element of skill. Players have a wide range motivations and skill levels, from casual players and thrill-seekers to professional players.

I don’t know how this works but assuredly polymarket takes a cut, right? So if we were betting on a coin toss on polymarket, the payout would be less than 2 for both heads ands tail after accounting for polymarket’s fee. That’s not different from the rake for a poker game in a casino?

For the purposes of understanding the behavior of those laying down bets, it is an irrelevant distinction.

Kalshi and Polymarket have a billion dollar of open interest between them (though velocity here matters too and volume is not very useful). The important thing is they are growing fast. Which means it might become big-potatoes very soon.