Does anyone expect there will be a post oil industry? I would assume (with not particular knowledge on the subject mind) that once we wind down oil use for fuel and to some extent plastics, there will be enough oil in the ground to support enough extraction for asphalt and other currently trivial uses indefinitely.
Afaik, (extremely simplifying) refineries split crude oil into fractions; we burn lighter hydrocarbons as fuel, make plastics out of the middle/heavy parts and what's left in the pot are some heavy, dirty remains that we figured make good roads instead of being thrown out.
We've already hit the point that electric cars are cheaper to operate, yet photovoltaic prices keep falling. Even equipment like electric excavators is now a thing. Batteries keep improving. It'll compound to smaller and smaller fuel, thus oil needs, so there will be less refining, thus less asphalt.
The assumption wasn't that that there will be no oil extraction, it was that there might be a future without tons of almost free road material. But I have zero expertise in oil macroeconomics, the question might've been stupid, I don't know that, haha
An asphalt roofing shingle company just closed in Minneapolis due to the city's new CO2 tax. The local environmental group held a little press conference crowing about it.
Mind you, this won't change the demand for asphalt shingles, they'll just be shipped from further, generating more C02 on the whole.
The only other current alternatives are all non-renewable as well- mined clay, slate, or metal. For residential roofs, I'm hoping metal continues to come down in price, as they tend to last longer and can be made to look quite good. For commercial / flat roofed buildings, there still needs to be some very thick rubberized underlayment below gravel or whatever to prevent standing water from getting in. The same is true for sod roofs in hobbit style earth homes.
So, yeah, there's still people in power who expect that all petroleum based products are equally evil and must be punished.
> An asphalt roofing shingle company just closed in Minneapolis due to the city's new CO2 tax. The local environmental group held a little press conference crowing about it.
For what it’s worth, Owens Corning operates an asphalt shingle plant in North Minneapolis (1701 49th Ave N) and they have no intentions of closing it down.
That's nice, but my response was to demonstrate that there are in fact people who think there's post petroleum industry, or at least desire it, not that none are foolish enough to stick around.
The original tax passed by the council, and overriding the mayor's veto was 90 times the current one at $452 a ton versus the current $5. The only reason for the drop was that the original couldn't possibly survive a challenge in court.
The environmental group celebrating the GAF closure is also real, and would likely celebrate Owens closing too.
I believe Mercedes is the only consumer car manufacturer that is advertising an SAE Level 3 system. My understanding is that L3 is where the manufacturer says you can take your attention off the road while the system is active, so they're assuming liability.
In my experience, it's less gaps and more lack of mainstream brands. The example that comes to mind is ketchup. At Whole Foods I can get generic store brand ketchup or a variety of fancy ketchups that cost 3-10x as much, but they don't have any variety of basic Heinz on the shelf. This "mid-market" gap is common for virtually every product category.
I think I remember reading somewhere that 75% of the groceries at Walmart don’t qualify to be sold at Whole Foods. I thought Amazon was going to step back on this though.
I think modern polling is deeply flawed, but taking the sentiments of a particular subreddit as more representative of an entire political party than the polling is probably taking it too far.
The polling is frequently wrong. I believe the subreddits (not just one) are mostly real people giving their views. They are not just random subs, they are the subs for those particular ideologies. They also match the opinions media pundits put out, and match various supporters appearing in other media, like the Jubilee Surrounded videos. On the balance of evidence available, it seems most people in that party is more for than against what has been going on.
We've gotten to a dark place where someone doesn't just slip into an echo chamber by accident but actively chooses to believe that selectively sampled data sources are actually superior to sources that attempt randomization.
There is no sane reason to think the subreddits nor Jubilee videos are actually representative, and certainly no reason to believe they are representative in contradiction to virtually every poll conducted in the past 12 months.
"Prior polls are wrong" is a lazy man's way out. Polls actually have been way less wrong than people commonly meme about, and again there's no sane reason to say "sources that attempt randomization were wrong so therefore sources that actively bias their samples are probably better."
It's not a dark place to try and be objective and take data from multiple sources, and shame on you for trying to paint doing so as something negative.
> There is no sane reason to think the subreddits nor Jubilee videos are actually representative, and certainly no reason to believe they are representative in contradiction to virtually every poll conducted in the past 12 months.
It's not just those sources, it's basically every single source yo ucan fine with people giving an opinion. Every talk show (Fox/News Nation/ONE, etc), all the right aligned papers e.g. NY Post, WSJ, all the podcasters, all the influencers, and yes, whenever supporters are given a chance to speak, they overwhelming are pleased and support what is going on.
At some point, ignoring all that and favoring purely a few polls is wilful ignorance, and I have to question the motive of anyone doing so. At a guess, I'd guess it's someone that voted conservative but doesn't want to be lumped in with 'the bad ones'.
No, I'm just not ignoring the majority of data points that disagree with the reality a particular reality I hope to wish into existence with the power of belief.
In general you should discount low quality data points, potentially to zero, while prioritizing high quality data points — regardless of which each of them says.
I work in an environment where access to LLMs is still quite restricted, so I write most of my code by hand at work. Conversely, after work I still have ideas for personal projects but mostly didn't have the energy to write them by hand. The ability to throw a half-baked idea at the LLM and get back half-baked code that runs and does most of what I asked for gives me the energy to work through refactoring and improving the code to make it do what I actually envisioned.
Neat project, and your experience mirrors mine when writing hobby projects.
About the project itself, do you plan to open source if eventually? LLM discussion aside, I've long been frustrated by the lack of a good free desktop 3D CAD software.
I would love to build this eventually to a real product so am not currently considering open sourcing it.
I can give you a free foreverlicense if you would like to be an alpha tester though :) - but am considering in any case for the eventual non-commercial licenses to be affordable&forever.
IMHO what the world needs is a good textbook on how to build CAD software. Mäntylä’s ”Solid modeling” is almost 40 years old. CAD itself is pushing 60-70 years.
The highly non-trivial parts in my app are open source software anyways (you can check the attribution file) and what this contributes is just a specific, opinionated way of how a program like this should work in 2020’s.
What I _would_ like to eventually contribute is a textbook in how to build something like this - and after that re-implementation would be a matter of some investment to LLM inference, testing, and end-user empathy. But that would have to wait either for my financial independence, AI-communism or my retirement :)
Fair enough. I was asking mostly because it looks like the current demo is Windows only. I'm trying to de-Windows my life before I'm forced onto Windows 11 and I imagine multi-platform support isn't a high priority for a personal project. I do wish you the best of luck though.
Different strokes for different folks and all, but that sounds like automating all of the fun parts and doing all of the drudgery by hand. If the LLM is going to write anything, I'd much rather make it write the tests and do the implementation myself.
The absolute value of one share doesn't really mean anything. No matter how you slice it, down 40% means that the company lost 40% of its value overnight. That's pretty Earth shattering for any company IMO.
Did you just answer your own question? Sure, the share price is a psychological element and, in conjunction with pre-fractional-ownership, it helps explain the prevalence of splits above $100/share. But no, the individual unit price doesnt affect true “value”, marketcap, or fundamentals like future discounted profit model.
Is that really the case? My experience is fairly limited, but I've found that the LLM's willingness to fill in plausible sounding (but not necessarily at all accurate) numbers where it needs them to be a significant hindrance when asking it to think about performance.
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